Monday, March 12, 2012

Win rate and risk reward part 2


Frequency Trading
Already a trading system of the above. It's all pretty discretion, but the system is fixed.
You should be aware of the expected trading frequency.
Trading system to win most of the fire: low prices, high reward for the Risk System.
Trading system of the fire, the average signal: Winrate high-risk low-reward system
Trading system of the fire in the complete absence of signal: Winrate large, high-reward venture system.
Logical, no? The signal system was shot in one of the lowest in the most profit potential. Shoot your system, the average trading system more profitable. And finally a shot at the least sign of the most profitable.
Trade my winrate is low, high reward to risk ratio of the system, and keep me busy and occupied while waiting for the opportunity to go to a large vein winrate trading system. This is my trading philosophy.
What kind of system a lot of hedge funds and large trading? Many hedge funds trade at low win rate, high reward to risk ratio in the system. One reason is that they do not know how to trade better. But the bigger reason is that greater trade and position worth hundreds of millions of billions of dollars, this type of trading system that is capable of meeting the liquidity constraints and still generate a decent amount of wins is low signal, high risk-reward systems.
Also note that if you try, if the trade is a huge amount of capital above system, you can even destroy a profit because the market system can not handle it. Or what will happen, you can reduce the frequency of trades in the system, only those who can handle the large amounts of capital.
For example, if you have a trading system, which is 80% winrate, and won three times what the risk. The signals generated 25 per year. The signals generated 25 per year, if you try to trade for a small / mid-caps, say, a million dollars.
If you decide to trade such a system is a huge amount of capital, say $ 1 billion. Or you will destroy the system. Or even more likely that the number of signals that occurs every drop of the year. So if you are 25 years of trading signals every 1 million dollar capital system. If the "commercial" system $ 1 billion in capital, taking into account the new constraints and the liquidity effect of a larger order, you only get your 10 transactions per year.
How do I know these things?
I just know.


Notice that I did not mention anything to win the low rate, low risk reward ratio of the system, either by a high winrate, the risk reward ratio below 1:01. He did not mention them because they are not worth trading.
There is no reason for the trading system, which is a win rate of 80% and the risk-reward ratio of 0.50
There is no reason to trade the system a 30% winrate, where the prize is only twice the loss.
Not traded in the system.
Instead, a better trading system.


I hope you like the article.

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